The Canadian housing market entered Spring 2026 on a cautious footing, as rising mortgage rates and growing economic uncertainty continued to weigh on buyer activity across the country. According to new data released by the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), home sales in March remained largely unchanged compared to February, signaling a market still struggling to regain momentum.
National home sales recorded through Canadian MLS® Systems slipped by just 0.1% month-over-month in March 2026, while actual sales activity came in 2.3% lower than the same period last year. CREA says a combination of inflation concerns, higher bond yields, and a sudden increase in fixed mortgage rates contributed to slower market conditions during what is usually the busiest season for real estate.
“Home sales activity remained at lower levels in March, as rising global economic uncertainty and higher inflation added pressure to an already shaky start to the year,” said Shaun Cathcart.
The number of newly listed properties also edged down slightly by 0.2%, while the MLS® Home Price Index declined 0.4% month-over-month and dropped 4.7% compared to March 2025. Meanwhile, the national average home sale price dipped 0.8% year-over-year.
Despite the softer performance, CREA still expects modest growth throughout 2026, largely driven by pent-up demand from first-time buyers who have been sidelined for several years due to affordability challenges and elevated borrowing costs. However, the organization has revised its forecast downward amid concerns that mortgage rates could remain higher for longer.
CREA now forecasts approximately 474,972 residential properties will be sold through Canadian MLS® Systems in 2026 — an increase of just 1% over 2025 levels. The association noted that provinces such as British Columbia and Ontario are expected to lead the recovery, as those markets have more room for sales activity to rebound.
The national average home price is projected to rise by 1.5% this year to nearly CAD 689,000, although price growth is expected to remain minimal in B.C., Alberta, and Ontario. Other provinces are likely to experience moderate gains ranging between 2% and 5%.
Looking ahead to 2027, CREA forecasts another 2.1% increase in home sales, reaching just over 485,000 transactions nationwide. The national average home price is also expected to edge higher to approximately CAD 695,000.
However, CREA warned that the outlook remains heavily dependent on inflation trends and interest rate decisions by the Bank of Canada. If inflation linked to recent oil price spikes proves temporary, mortgage rates could stabilize or decline again, potentially encouraging more buyers to return to the market during the second half of the year.
For now, many Canadians appear to be taking a wait-and-see approach, hoping borrowing costs ease before making major real estate decisions.
