Following a prolonged period of stagnation and market adjustment, Ho Chi Minh City’s (HCMC) real estate sector entered a new development cycle in 2025. Growth has been fueled by the increased supply of affordable and social housing from projects in the former Binh Duong and Ba Ria–Vung Tau provinces, officially merged into the city in July.
According to the Ho Chi Minh City Real Estate Association (HoREA), the market faced significant challenges over the past five years. Inconsistent legal regulations, often disconnected from real-world conditions, and uneven enforcement created major bottlenecks for investment and construction, particularly in real estate projects, urban developments, and commercial and social housing.
Despite these obstacles, industrial real estate, large-scale urban projects, and high-end developments led by reputable firms remained bright spots. The former HCMC market reached its lowest point in Q1 2023, contracting by 16.2%, before gradually recovering from the end of Q2 2023, a trend that continues.
Rising supply and reduced imbalance after the merger
In 2025, real estate companies capitalized on new growth opportunities, supported by what HoREA described as a “revolution” in legal institutions. Four major Politburo resolutions—No. 57, 59, 66, and 68—strengthened business confidence and guided improvements in the legal framework, creating a more transparent and sustainable environment.
As a result, HCMC’s market is expected to become safer, more transparent, and more balanced, reducing the dominance of high-end housing and addressing shortages in mid-priced, affordable, and social housing. For context, in 2020, the former HCMC recorded just 163 new affordable commercial housing units—1% of total supply.
From 2021 to June 2025, no new affordable units were added, while high-end housing dominated from 2024 onwards. This imbalance pushed home prices beyond the reach of many middle- and low-income residents, including civil servants, workers, and migrants.
The merger expanded HCMC to 6,772 km², with an official population of 14 million, potentially 18 million including migrants. This opened new development space and reinforced ambitions to become a global megacity, international financial centre, and regional economic hub. The added supply from Binh Duong and Ba Ria–Vung Tau eased the bias toward high-end housing, boosting mid-priced, affordable, and social options.
Experts attribute the 2025 market recovery to three factors. First, the legal framework: coordinated implementation of the 2024 Land Law, 2023 Housing Law, and 2023 Law on Real Estate Business resolved long-standing obstacles in project approvals, land valuation, and financial obligations, restoring investor confidence.
Second, transport infrastructure: Metro Line 1 (Ben Thanh–Suoi Tien) began commercial operation, while Ring Road 3, the An Phu interchange, and National Highway 50 expansions accelerated suburban development. Third, stable mortgage rates of 6–8% for preferential loans encouraged housing credit uptake.
Apartments take the lead
While land plots and resorts dominated 2018–2022, apartments became the standout segment in 2025. Urbanization and migration sustained high housing demand, with well-priced projects achieving up to 90% absorption in the first month.
Property prices set new benchmarks due to rising land-use fees, construction materials, and labor costs. Luxury apartments in former District 1 and Thu Thiem ranged VND250–550 million ($20,912)/m²; high-end areas like District 7, Thao Dien, and Thanh My Loi ranged VND120–180 million ($6,844)/m². The mid-range, including Thu Duc, District 8, and Nha Be, ranged VND65–95 million ($3,612)/m². Affordable units reached VND45–60 million ($2,281)/m², mostly in the merged provinces.
Investment hotspots
In 2025, northern investors showed strong interest in HCMC. While the city centre remains attractive, suburban areas like Can Gio and Binh Duong gained attention. Historically, HCMC prices exceeded Hanoi’s until 2022; since 2023, Hanoi has overtaken HCMC. Completion of major infrastructure projects is expected to strengthen HCMC’s growth.
Now contributing nearly 24% of Vietnam’s GDP, the expanded HCMC market is poised for long-term growth from infrastructure and social development. Suburban plots in Binh Chanh, Cu Chi, and Can Gio saw modest price increases, with Can Gio rising sharply after Vingroup’s tourism–urban project.
HoREA concluded that HCMC’s real estate market passed its lowest point in 2025 and is on a firm recovery trajectory. Supported by infrastructure and strong housing demand, the market is both a key investment channel and a driver of economic growth, though challenges remain, including high prices, segment imbalances, interest rate pressures, and inflation risks.
