The real estate market is set for a turbulent year in 2026. While affordability may improve, litigation continues, and uncertainty surrounds how the government will implement housing reform. Home sales, inventory, and prices are expected to normalize slowly, but the industry still faces fundamental operational questions.
Over the past three years, the market has remained in a low-gear state for buyers and sellers, while structural issues persisted. The 2023 Sitzer/Burnett verdict disrupted buyer agent commissions. Settlements in 2024 briefly suggested a fresh start, but 2025 brought new lawsuits over private listings and mandatory membership as appeals challenged the commission settlements.
Buyer agent commission settlements at risk
Real estate consultant Rob Hahn, writing on his Notorious ROB Substack, predicts that the Sitzer/Burnett and Gibson settlements could be overturned in 2026. These settlements had established a $1 billion fund for home sellers and prompted policy changes at the National Association of Realtors (NAR) regarding buyer agent commissions.
The cases are now before the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Eighth Circuit, with oral arguments scheduled for January 14, 2026, and a ruling expected later in the year. Hahn warns that if the settlements are vacated, the industry could face “pure chaos,” potentially requiring higher damages and more extensive policy changes. He notes that a year of implementing new rules, training agents, and adjusting systems could effectively be undone, creating widespread uncertainty.
MLS consolidation likely to accelerate
Redfin anticipates that NAR will continue shifting focus from setting rules for multiple listing services (MLSs) to broader advocacy. This change could accelerate the consolidation of smaller MLSs into larger networks. While local MLSs will have more discretion under the updated MLS Handbook, the lack of standardized rules may confuse consumers.
“This will, if anything, highlight the value of having an agent who is very knowledgeable about their local MLS,” said Redfin Chief Economist Daryl Fairweather.
Rise of the ‘lifestyle renter’
Persistent affordability challenges and high home prices may lead more Americans to rent for lifestyle reasons. Zillow’s 2025 Consumer Housing Trends report found that only 37% of renters would buy a home if mortgage rates dropped, down from 45% the previous year.
Nearly 60% of respondents planned to continue renting in 2026. Zillow also expects rent affordability to improve in most major markets next year, with apartment rents projected to rise just 0.3%.
Government housing reform expected
Housing affordability remained a bipartisan concern in 2025, and Redfin expects this political focus to result in action ahead of the 2026 midterm elections.
However, implementing legislation takes time, and Redfin does not anticipate a return to “normal” housing costs until around 2030. 2026 is shaping up to be a year of potential disruption and transformation, with litigation, MLS changes, rental trends, and government action all likely to influence the U.S. real estate landscape.
